Ekantik Capital Advisors — Correction Intelligence Program
Market Positioning
Pre-committed equity deployment, driven by the live correction state machine — no discretionary score.
Research Publication — Educational and Illustrative. The market positioning below is general-circulation research published by Ekantik Capital Advisors LLC under the publisher's exemption. It is not personalized investment advice and is not tailored to any subscriber's individual financial circumstances. Subscribers should consult their own financial professional before acting on any research.
What changes this: A close ≤ 7229 (−5% below the 7610 cycle high) enters Tier 1 → deployment steps to 85%.
Current drivers
Red = currently pushing deployment down. Click any driver to jump to its evidence card on the Correction Dashboard — the card will flash so you land on exactly the signal that set this level.
The deployment ladder (pre-committed)
Every level is published in advance. The highlighted row is where the state machine puts us today; nothing else about the ladder moves.
| Deployment | When (frozen rules) | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 100%now | Tier 0 — no qualifying event | Fully investedBase rate is ~one qualifying event per year; the cost of standing aside in Tier 0 compounds. Nothing is sold on headlines — only on a −5% close. |
| 85% | Tier 1 · router OPEN (first −5% close, bounce undecided) | Trim the speculative sleeve; hold coreHalf of the 54 catalog events died short of −10% — hard de-risking on every −5% is the historically losing move. Cut leverage and momentum names, keep the core, let the 30-td router decide. |
| 70% | Tier 1 · router ESCALATE (failed bounce + lower low) | Reduce to core positionsThe failed-recovery signal: P(≥10%) jumps to 58% vs 7% for clean recoveries. The seller is persistent — respect it before the −10% print, not after. |
| 55% | Tier 2 — fundamental repricing (policy FREE, credit quiet) | Half deployed; stage re-entry ordersDepth engine band: typically 5–15% further from here. With the Fed free and credit quiet, the historical median resolves shallow — stay half-in rather than flat. |
| 40% | Tier 2 + policy CONSTRAINED or credit impulse TRIGGERED | Reduced to defensive coreThe two depth multipliers: CPI > 4% removes the Fed put (median depth 13.9% vs 9.4%) and credit widening carries ρ = +0.65 to final depth. The published range is forced to its upper half — deployment follows it down. |
| 25% | Tier 3 — capitulation (price-driven: close ≤ −20%) | Defensive floor; buy only on conditionsCapitulation band runs 15–50% deep. The floor stays invested because Tier-3 entries are historically closer to the bottom than the top — but adding waits for the exit conditions (confirmed higher low + 4 weeks of credit narrowing), never a price guess. |
| 0% | Tier 3 + Sahm FIRED + credit crisis > 250bp + policy CONSTRAINED | Flat — full defenseThe recessionary-capitulation stack: every leg of the non-price Tier-3 entry confirmed at once. This is the 1973–74 (−48%) and 2007–09 (−57%) profile — the only regimes in 50 years where flat beat every partial deployment. |
Correction type → expected depth
The event-definition threshold from the backtest. Entry anchors the cycle high, opens the 30/60-td failed-recovery router windows, and requires an event-register entry (catalyst + SPECULATIVE / REALITY_BASED tag) within 48h. Most events die here: 27 of the 54 catalog events stopped short of −10%.
Precedent: Typical residents: 2013 taper tantrum (−5.8%), 2019 trade-war dips (−6.8%, −6.1%), 2021 Evergrande (−5.2%), 1997 Asia I (−6.3%).
Earnings and growth expectations are being repriced — not just positioning. The depth engine activates here and always publishes a range with an invalidation close, never a point estimate. Gear review is mandatory on entry.
Precedent: 20 of 54 events landed in the 10–20% band: 1998 LTCM (−19.3%), 2011 debt ceiling (−19.4%), 2015–16 China/EM (−14.2%), 2018 Q4 tightening (−19.8%), 2025 tariff shock (−18.9%).
Buy-and-hold capitulation regime. Exit is condition-based, not price-based — the system will not call a bottom from price alone; it requires the seller (credit) to stand down for a month and a confirmed higher low.
Precedent: 7 of 54 events: 1973–74 oil embargo (−48.2%), 1980–82 Volcker bear (−27.1%), 1987 crash (−33.5%), 2000–02 dot-com (−49.1%), 2007–09 GFC (−56.8%), 2020 COVID (−33.9%), 2022 inflation bear (−25.4%).
How the level is set (and why there is no score)
The deployment level is a deterministic function of the correction state machine: tier, failed-recovery router, and the three depth multipliers (policy switch, credit impulse, credit crisis, Sahm gate). Same inputs, same answer — there is no discretionary score. It replaces the legacy weighted-score gauge: instead of a 0–100 blend, you see exactly which frozen rule put you at this level and exactly what close or signal would change it.
Re-entry — how deployment steps back up
Re-entry follows the same ladder in reverse, driven by the frozen exit conditions — regain of the cycle high or a clean 30-td window (Tier 1), a 50% retrace with credit narrowing (Tier 2), a confirmed higher low plus four consecutive weeks of Baa−10y narrowing (Tier 3). Deployment steps back up as the state machine de-escalates; it never front-runs price.
What the percentages mean
Percentages refer to deployment of the equity sleeve (100% = the portfolio’s normal full equity weight), not total net worth. Options overlays, hedges, and the cash yield on the undeployed balance are outside this ladder’s scope.